FPCI SPOTLIGHT #2
Peace on Knifepoint: Russia-Ukraine Border Tension
Written by:
Elang Rangga Nusaputra (Research Fellow at FPCI Chapter UNDIP)
Muhamad Riza Nouval Putra (Research Fellow at FPCI Chapter UNDIP)
Danu Harja (Research Fellow at FPCI Chapter UNDIP)
What happened in Ukraine?
As of January 2022, various digital news websites and news from various sources reported that Ukraine and Russia are currently experiencing diplomatic ups and downs, this is due to the deployment of more than 127,000 troops near the Ukrainian border by the Russian military which is claimed to be aimed at establish cooperation with Belarus regarding joint military exercises around Belarusian waters (Matthew, 2022).
This deployment is claimed by the Russian government as a form of prevention to counteract the influence and existence of NATO and the United States in spreading their influence to Ukraine. This is related to the annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014 which it was feared would fall into the hands of the Ukrainian government, which has sides with NATO and its allies.
In general, this conflict is the aftermath of Russia’s claims to Ukraine which the Russian government says is the missing piece. This situation is inspired by historical traces of about 1,200 years ago, the area that now includes Ukraine, Russia and Belarus is a sphere of territory that was born in the same place, namely the banks of the Dnieper river (Haryanto, A., 2022). In addition, the existence of the role of the Russian government in perpetuating influence at the level of the Ukrainian state on the President of Viktor Yanukovych encountered quite resistant obstacles. This is because in 2014, there was a major revolution in Ukraine which resulted in President Viktor Yanukovych having to leave his leadership chair as president in Ukraine. His position was then occupied by Volodymyr Zelensky who had an interest in the western world. This is indicated by its orientation to continue good relations with international organisations that have the influence of the United States, further undermining Russia’s sphere of influence over the region and the state itself.
Significance of the conflict
Continuation of the conflict based on geopolitical and historical competition underlies Moscow to carry out a series of camouflages carried out by involving various parties. The position of Ukraine and Crimea, which has a plan to have a direct border with Moscow, is a concern for Russia’s existence at a later stage.
Judging from the political movements a few weeks ago, Russia saw that there was an increase in Ukraine’s support and desire as a signal of a threat to Russia’s security because it was flanked by many European countries that had joined the NATO entity itself whose biggest influence came from the United States.
Historically, both Ukraine and Russia were both former Soviet Union states in the past, both of them had pledged allegiance and compromised each other in fostering diplomatic integrity through the CIS organization in the mid-1990s. Although in the end, this organization experienced a decline and instability due to the many countries that declared exit, including Ukraine.
The conflict that occurred involving Ukraine and Russia itself experienced a fairly resistant friction process marked by the fall of the Viktor Yanukovych regime due to the coup that occurred in 2014. This coup occurred as a result of the suspension of aid and the political process in the form of trade relations with the European Union was widely opposed by the public. . At a later stage, the demonstration turned into an arena of chaos and resulted in the ousting of Viktor Yanukovych.
In 2014, Russia diplomatically forced Ukraine to relinquish Crimea with the help of a referendum conducted. This diplomatic process — it seems easier to call it annexation of territory — occurs because the Russian government argues that what they are doing is to defend its interests and the interests of Russian-speaking citizens.
Shortly after, pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions declared their independence from Kyiv, sparking months of fierce fighting. Although Kyiv and Moscow signed a peace accord in Minsk in 2015, brokered by France and Germany, there have been repeated ceasefire violations.
According to UN figures, there have been more than 3,000 conflict-related civilian deaths in eastern Ukraine since March 2014.(Matthew, 2022)
In response to Russia’s actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, the European Union and the US have imposed a series of measures including economic sanctions targeting certain individuals, entities and sectors of the Russian economy. At the same time led by France, NATO has increased the readiness of the 5,000-member rapid response force that could deploy quickly to support alliance members. NATO secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg noted the continued buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine and, most worryingly, he suggested the integration of Russian and Belarusian troops “under the guise of training” with advanced weapons, including the S400 air defense system (Crowley, 2022)
Conflict brief summary
➢ 2014 :
○ February-March — Peak of antigovernmental protest in Ukraine sparks a counter revolution in Donbas region as Crimea annexed by Russia
○ September — The signed of Minsk agreement in Belarus calling for ceasefire between both sides (Ukraine and pro Russia militia in Donbas region)
➢ 2015 :
○ February — New Minks agreement signed with new OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) monitored ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapon from both sides
➢ 2017 :
○ June — Ukrainian parliament adopts legislation to restate its intention to join NATO
➢ 2020 :
○ September — Security strategy as a laying foundations for Ukraine partnership with NATO has been approved by Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Ukraine president)
➢ 2021 :
○ March — Russian troops has start amassing at Ukraine borders
○ July — The publishes of article “On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians” by Vladimir Putin, delineates the historical ties between Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus
○ December — estimated over 100,000 Russian troops have concentrated at Ukraine borders
➢ 2022 :
○ January — As NATO put troops on standby; Russia, NATO, and OSCE held diplomatic talks where Russia and US meet at Geneva to de-escalate the tension
Current rising issue on the border of Ukraine
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are beginning to escalate into a worst-case scenario, which could lead to serious conflicts between Western countries. The involvement of NATO and the diplomatic talks between Russia and US in Geneva last month were agreed to de-escalate the tension, however, the state of affairs at the floor appears to mention otherwise.
After the Geneva talks, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned of a “quick and harsh” response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine after convening troops near the border. Both sides said they were open for further dialogue regarding the situation, Blinken also hopes that mutual security concerns could be addressed.
Strengthening The Border
As tensions rose in the last month of January 2022, Russia deployed more than 20 warships to Black Sea on Wednesday (26/1/2022). These deployments clearly contributed to the tension on the Ukraine border. Russia claimed that these deployments were used for military training purposes. Even though this kind of tactics have been used often by Russia to threaten the Ukraine Border.
Responding to the situation, the UK started to consider sending their military reinforcements in order to support and strengthen the Ukraine border. Prime Minister Johnson also wants to consider the offers among NATO members to deploy their military force.
The involvement of the UK is likely very serious as well as their purpose to prevent Russian invasion. As before, the UK and United States agreed to give sanction for the Russian oligarchs if they launch the invasion. UK and United States keeps pushing Vladimir Putin to desist the invasion through diplomacy and military support, Liz Truss as Foreign Secretary of UK also affirmed the weapons support from UK will signal the oligarchs who are close to the Kremlin had “nowhere to hide”. (Mallet, 2022.)
Both Russia and Western nations have stepped up military activity, with Russia holding drills near the Ukrainian borders, the United States putting 8,500 troops on high alert for deployment, and NATO increasing its deployments in the region. (Crowley, 2022)
EU Towards The Conflict
Acknowledging the issue of declaration involving Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova’s effort to join the EU which was held on the Georgian Black Sea reap some controversy among Eastern Nations especially Russia.
Russia has clearly spoken and ensured that Ukraine would never become a member of NATO. President Putin also claimed that NATO was not keeping the promise according to the 1990 agreement not to expand its sovereignty in the Eastern Europe. This would be the major problem to escalating the border tension.
Meanwhile in the Western sides, countries like Germany and the US are using the “Nord Stream 2” gas pipeline as their ‘weapon’ to cancel the operation if Russia tries to invade Ukraine.
On the other hand, French have successfully established a discussion with Russia. The French officially said that Russia would like to de-escalate the Ukraine crisis and promised not to take new ‘military initiatives’ and the withdrawal of thousands of Russian troops from Belarus after planned exercises were completed.(Seddon, Mallet. 2022). Macron also wants to build a “concrete security guarantee” for all the nations including Russia, Ukraine and the members of the EU which help to build stability and security in Europe .
Further Action
Acknowledging the current situation, both sides have to reconsider their steps in order to prevent any unnecessary circumstances. Although there are some activities which may escalate the tension, both sides must establish a healthy diplomatic situation.
Many experts and politicians believe it might not trigger any kind of large-scale war, instead, local war in which both sides have their own interest to offer or to deal with their country.
Each country has some concept and method to gain any interest for their own country. Regarding the economic and political situation, to take further action both sides need to make another discussion without escalating the tension. Especially for the diplomatic relations in both countries in order to prevent any unnecessary situation.
Reference
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